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Possible Assessment of Trajectories of Developments in an Around Afghanistan

Posted by HCN on Thursday, January 22, 2026
Coming out of the years of harsh challenges and oppression, and natural disasters like earthquakes, many look forward to Afghanistan having some time for reprieve.
It appears [right through here, January 2026] there are multiple pots stirring, perhaps as an aggregate, a pot that has been getting hotter and hotter. It may be hard to tell when far off from the area, and available to media, just what exactly every event was that has occurred since December of 2025 for instance.
However, it may be possible to present a few key events, developments, and names that could be indicators of where things could go if left unchecked.

What these, or some of these, are, or might be:
There's a 'group' if that's a label, and for brief words, called ISIS-K, which according to media trends, seems to be growing in 'notoriety' (in the 'terrorist world').
ISIS-K appears to sometimes be shortened to just ISIS, which might do a little disservice when trying to analyze the dynamics of events and developments. ISIS-K seems to have certain patterns of development, although it might somehow be tied to the popularly known ISIS. The K in ISIS-K according to popularly known definitions, might stand for Khorasan. Keep in mind, that sometimes nomenclatures especially when acronym based, are ways for media to quickly cite and label a group, entity and things of that kind (id genus omne), in a language, like English. On a practical, reality level, the English letter K is unlikely to be in the middle of an all Urdu sentence of today; 'Kh' might actually be represented as one letter in other eastern or Middle Eastern languages, transliteration efforts, could be more accurately transliterated Khurasan. Etc.

There's a 'group', ...ceteris paribus, called Al-Tazkirah, that is reported to be a recruiter for ISIS-K. Basically reports say they are reaching in to whom they see as potentials in the Uighur, Uyghur and other spellings, folk (reference China).

Simple background,- al usually means the, or amplified main, when translating Arabic and related/regional etc. languages to English. Tazkira, or tadhkira, tathkira, transliterations could go on to fill a page up, that zikr, or remembrance, usually used in the context of memory of the Creator, (religious), with a t or ta in front of it, and the circular letters or symbol after it for grammatical touches (quickly said). A lot of folks all over the world are familiar with the zikr, zhikr part. Reality is, once again, a word and concept that has been around since about as long as man at least itself, is being used as a group name.

A suicide bomb went off in a Chinese restaurant in Kabul, Afghanistan just about a couple of days ago. It is reported that ISIS-K took responsibility, and that it had to do with oppression of Uighurs, the target was Chinese National. Reports indicate one Chinese person passed away, there were a number of Afghanis that passed in the incident.

-Not to be judgemental of the vibe seen in the pictures of the tragedy.

- It might be somewhat safe to say, that there seems to be a lingering effort (by whomever, singular, multiple, it might be cloudy as to who or what exactly is behind it) to try to keep the presence of violence in the region.

In the meantime, at least within the past couple of months, there are roughly 2 to several main sets of concurrent border tensions going on. There may be other border concerns, maybe not as salient, or treated as salient in many media coverage.

Durand line around Pakistan border.
Generally looks on online easy access maps to be the longest of the borders, stretching along the south of Afghanistan.

Tajikistan border incidents.

Daqq-e Patergan / Daryache-ye Namakzar.
Environmental, water, border issues.

Reports of smuggling issues at different border spots.

As a matter of information, Afghanistan borders:
Pakistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Tajikistan
China

Ongoing conditions are already in consideration.



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3/1/2026

Refer Burma/Myanmar page for air strikes over the EOM February/2026 start of March 2026 time frame. Up for consideration is the be mindful of the whole pie concept. There may very well be a double team set of missile strikes going on on Iran, subject to differing views; however there are still a number of situations going on globally that are weighted, such as violence in different areas of where the Sahel and Northern Africa meet, situations of starvation in the eastern areas of the belt as well; and missile strikes in other regions.

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