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Russia Behests to Halt the Offensive (on Ukraine). A Quick Take on What's Involved.

March 8, 2022
(Written and published mid-evening March 7, 2022 EST)

The leader of Russia in Putin recently reportedly announced that it has four or about that number of requests and it will immediately stop the military activity that has been going on in Ukraine that can be described as has been going on in the last just under 2 weeks.

A few things, first, here in the USA, we might have the watered-down translation. What are the nuances? There is the lexicographical words, and then there is the huge ocean of information behind it.

Aspects of the list of 4 simple things, some reports say 5, and so on, are things that have been discussed in the region over the centuries.

Let's have a look.

'Acknowledge Crimea as a Russian territory.'

Here's the thing. Even if Ukraine does acknowledge, there are likely plenty of parties that may consider themselves as having their own mind made up they never will acknowledge that, with or without the current political status of Ukraine, meaning, the issue of Crimea goes back so many hundreds of years ago, that it transcends current political boundaries, according to some historical analyses. (Cans of worms opening up is a repeated theme; here, who is associating or innately simultaneously fully connected to Ukraine with their view and who is not, partially, tenuously; ca get to broiling up.)

Crimea is that region that loosely looks like a diamond sitting below (south) the Ukraine, with a right hand (the map lines if drawn by a cartographer), close to Russia and the Sea of Azov.

Many knew around the world as soon as they heard about tanks moving in the region, that down below on the issues list was the Crimea.
(Hey, religiousness has absolutely nothing to do with, absolutely nothing... ??)

'Ukraine can't join NATO'
In today's times, standout question people might be wondering is, why is, in or not in NATO, an issue post Gorbachev. We are talking 30 plus years now. The forms of Communism, in pre-cell phone, pre-Internet on teenagers' mobile computing devices, compared to the political free-minded world now, Democracy the trend, is almost like night and day. Economic mechanisms set in place to control huge tracts of land and millions of people at a time, as perhaps the days started to wane in the late 1980s, has a different dynamic now, and basically, overlaps from the old systems are debatable as even necessary, for whatever it may be that is out there to do whatever it is that may be on the maybe list.

As general as that sounds, that might be a lot of beans spilled.

Number 3, 'Donetsk and Lugansk as independent states'.
Admittedly, I know little about it. What can be said for sure, is here in the USA, most kids might take a few minutes to point exactly where Ukraine is in under 10 seconds without the words being on the map, nevermind the Donetsk and Lugansk or Luhansk, and history, and political positioning. How is a viewpoint everybody can agree on going to emerge if there is no frame of reference to say yes, no, right, left, good, bad, this was and this is what could be?
 
Donetsk and Lugansk are near the eastern area of Ukraine, near a location that may be more familiar to Americans, Rostov-on-Don; about 50 miles away. [There are some sad stories about that area, referencing the past 20 years. It was way up there, a major attraction; it got treated as though it was there to do whatever one wanted without taking care of the place, and people are negligent. The aftermath, is the once was is now a place to have second thoughts in regards some of the conditions there.]
Back to Donetsk and Lugansk,- The quick, quick, is these two republics as they are considered by some, Ukraine might have adverse views on them, this as reported by some, for example that they may be terrorists. So there lies a question. Why would Ukraine want but so much to do? aspects might get more complicated; if Russia wants them independent states, will this also correspond to Russia taking responsibility to suppress terrorism if it those activities do emerge from the region; and if they do, will they; if they do not, who will, and how, if they are independent?; the tangled coils could go on and on. What ifs, continue; what if there are terrorists that go over there that take no interest in the Donetsk and Lugansk, and just go over there to start stuff up, and the two regions wind up taking the brunt of a bad reputation?

A split second decision, of yes, or no, they are independent, might not pop up; how could it; but that is what is necessary to scale down? It might be tough rock and hard place.

The others of propagating a neutrality, (conjecturably) that Russia views as such, and reducing their military action, is standard; however, like the others, may be easier said than done.
Of course, in the name of peace, folks might be a proponent just to go ahead and say yes to stop the military action, stop the bloodshed, then, the orders of the universe come in, how does a wheel stop rolling downhill by just saying something?



 

Spike in Gas Prices Summary, Logical Economic Principles...

March 7, 2022
Not intended to take up a whole lot of space, because once the it's mentioned, the rest is easy to fill in the blanks.
Quickly but carefully written full story here: https://hcn-cache.blogspot.com/2022/03/basic-concept-while-gas-prices-are.html
Presented in a bring to school and read aloud format.

The first economic lessons many learn in school, is supply and demand. That could hold the key why the cost of gasoline at the fuel pump is roughly 25 to 30% higher than it was just a few weeks ago.

It is world news there is a situation with Ukraine and Russia.

... the average Joe at the gas station...

Oil, where gas comes from, is all over the world...

With oil in numerous places, including off-shore, this provides for a broader set of supply. Let us look at the huge amounts of oil strewn out all over the outskirts of Russia and abutting countries, such as Ukraine, plus off-shore drilling... 

For easy illustration sake, Russia has arguably twice as much oil as the US.

If you keep going down the list, you will find countries like what comprises the region of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, (30k, 600, and 600, million estimated barrels, adding up to about 31.2 billion barrels) east of the Caspian Sea, which coming from the Atlantic shore, is east of the Black Sea, Azerbaijan, and of course Ukraine with amounts nearing 400 million barrels. 

The tensions between Russia and Ukraine, going on in the Ukraine as we speak, is geographically set a straight north shot over the Black Sea from Turkey. Although individually they might not top the list, collectively, the amounts of oil add up. 

A set of resources quite possibly affected, unless you go southeast of the Black Sea, where you arrive the Middle East.

So for right now, with crisis in Ukraine going on, that broad selection of oil, the supply, one might see, may have gotten trimmed down, ...  Oil is for the time being, has its limitations, perhaps leaning to the Middle East, and the Americas, that's the US, Canada, and areas in and around Venezuela, as top producers, likely because honestly, it might be a matter of common sense that accessing those oil reserves in the Ukraine area, Russia and its reputed roughly 100 billion barrels of reserves...

As supply gets smaller, the demand gets higher, and often, when supply decreased and demand increased, so too are increases in the prices for the product, in this case oil, corresponding to the rising cost of gas to fill vehicles up.



The next level of complexity: '73 Crisis

The abovesaid can be explained to 4th and 5th graders. No disrespect intended. 6th and 7th graders are often taught a bit about history... For Joe, and a housewife under a tight budget, $20 just to lace the bottom of the tank can be a hard hit, when in other times, 20 bucks can get you around for a few days.

It all is remindful of the gas crisis of 1973, and 70s summarily. The 'OPEC embargo'. Well usually an embargo is associated with tensions in a region... Right now the tension in a region that has been getting a lot of media attention is the referent Ukraine Russia one...
 

Behind the Concealable Sized Gun: Downfall of a Stable Society

February 5, 2022
About 30 years ago, assault weapons that could be used to perpetrate mass shootings started to receive big crackdowns, and the commonality of them on the streets for crimes eventually became obsolete. Many thank yous have gone out to reduce mass shootings.

However, the challenge that has emerged in the changeover, is many would be criminal shooters are turning to smaller guns, and with that come the pros and cons of these types of weapons. To a shooter, a pro might be a con to an innocent victim and society, cons, vice versa. Explaining, the downside of a small gun or firearm to an ill intended shooter and hence con, works to the advantage of society that wants gun violence mitigation; main among these is that the number of victims during discharges of the firearm are reduced (often correlated to the reduced number of bullets that can fit in the gun), the lethality level of the firearm such caliber, often is not as strong, and the power of a shot is not felt as much when the bullet strikes a person from far off. This is not to say that a stray bullet from a small gun will do nothing beyond a quarter a mile, but a 22 caliber 2 inch barrel is probably not going to do as much damage as a long range rifle designed for hunting deer and elk.

Smaller guns used by petty criminals may often cost less than larger assault weapons.

There can basically be two classes of small guns, in context. One are cheaper guns that have some impact, designed mainly for stopping power in emergencies, to thwart a robbery for instance, lethality not intended. The other category, are highly specialized compact weapons that might be very costly especially when purchased from a firearm company.

Compact, small, concealable, pocket, pistols, handguns, there are a bunch of different names for them. The key words for 2021 and 2022, are 'guns that can fit in a pocket', in someone's clothes, such as a pants pocket, or jacket. Often inconspicuously, it is barely noticeable that a would be shooter has the gun in an easy grab spot where they can reach in pull it out, then put it back and take off running.

The other prong to the combination of shooting then running and ether never caught or it takes a while for authorities to catch up to them, that often occurs, is the outfit and clothes the suspect shooter is wearing is dark, an blend with the dark hours of the night or early morning. Often, not always, violent crime involving small guns, these days, occurs somewhere between as soon as it gets dark, and early in the morning as the last trickles of weekend businesses like late night coffee shops, lounges, and night clubs, start to close down.

About 75% of the top news stories today, February 5, 2022, have to do with gun violence. From those numbers, about 75% of the gun violence involves teenagers as the victims.

Issues now are the availability and accessibility of criminal firearm use to smaller firearms. Whether purchased from a store, or built off the record, such as ghost guns.

Because of the lessened efficacy of smaller guns, would be shooters have figured out they need to be closer to the victim to do more injury to a potential victim. That might explain why a number of recent shootings, in addition to being during dark hours, are in situations where the shooter and victim are close to each other, such as in the same driveway of a house, inside a lounge, and gas stations, where a conversation and altercation can take place between the individuals.

Now a trademark of the type of crime has emerged, that when an altercation is going on where individuals are a few feet from each other, that it could be the setting for a small firearm discharge.

Of course the vulnerability found in teenagers' naivety is often exploited where they are lured into an argument, their egos are manipulate and they want to stand up or themselves; then for the slightest reason or provocation, out comes a small firearm.

The small gun shooting spates are spoiling the constructs in society of coming together. Ways to bring about change, markedly reducing small gun shootings, or any size gun, should be developed.





 

Turbulent Unrest in Kazakhstan January 2022 Outlined

February 2, 2022
Reports are most of the violence during the span from today through this past January involving protesting occurred in Almaty, Kazakhstan.

To summarize to get the facts on an outward level of what has occurred in about the last 30 days, as viewed by outsiders, terminology only used for the sake of brevity in time, is this:
  • On or about January 5th, protesting emerged about rising oil prices.
  • The protests turned increasingly violent, and even looting got involved.
  • The protests were suppressed.
  • Numerous persons were arrested in the process.
  • By January's end it is said that at least 200 persons were fatalities.
  • Complaints are surfacing now, about 3 weeks after the 'initial' protesting, that human rights abuses at a large enough scale to make headlines, occurred during the crackdown on protestors.
  • About 3800 persons are estimated to be currently detained, as of the moment of this article.

On the political dimension, the current President of Kazakhstan, is said to have performed restructuring insofar other political figures angles of involvement in the power structure at large. There were officials that may have resigned.

Although the main story or aspects of it, such as dates of heightened events, might be borrowed from other news sources, at HCN we strive not to simply reiterate the common stories of their analysis or perspectives of what happened.

The reason why, is sometimes the backstory of where things are today, is not presented alongside the shocking and attention grabbing events that just happened, the events that can drive increased views to a website, increase revenue and so forth.

Some of the backstories, or perhaps background and history, might show that what happened in Almaty may have been a heightened level of unrest, but the inner unrest over certain issues has been around for years. Discomfort with oil prices and other oil related issues in Kazakhstan has existed for years, how many years back, softly, assessing comfort levels going back to when oil first started to take-off as a major industry in the region in the modern era, might be a good starting point.

Oil as a major resource in the region, recognized as wealth producing, for this conversation, was around the start of the 20th century. 1899, 1911. 

A government building might have been set on fire earlier this January, however, there have been other incidents.

In December of 2011, there was the Zhanaozen incident. Oil field workers went on strike.

It seems every few years to decade, a large protest with oil in the subject, evolves.

Kazakhstan is currently ranked somewhere between the top 20 and top dozen oil producing countries. The amount of money involved at the number one through five spots is immense. A few tiers down is still a huge amount of financial complex.

Who does the oil fields belong to?, was a central topic in the late 1980s, early 1990s, as the days culminating with USSR becoming 'disunionized' started to materialize; the options essentially Russia or Kazakhstan.

In 1991, Kazakhstan declared independence from the USSR, (a historical assessment at a very basic level for illustration).
In about 1991, on the more politically open playing field, global companies involved and so forth, Kazakhstan started appearing as a major presence on the world oil production and trade stage.

Year 2000 thereabout saw the development of the National Fund of the Republic of Kazakhstan.

There have been ongoing privatization issues.

In today's modern era, general discomfort with the current government establishment or establishments in the past two decades thereabout, is a common phenomenon that is found in a number of regions near the 'East-West' threshold. So, when violent protests emerge, and become world news because of the number of physical fires involved, it may be a fusion, of some aspects of oil, some aspects of differences in culture, political views, and never to leave out the possibility of foreign elements penetrating into the region and inciting riots.

Who is 'in' (accepted by groups of people), who is 'out', insider, outsider, accepted, not accepted, regarding political groups, and of course, what comprises the people doing the complaining, can be more complicated than a quick review of the looting in an online media news story that has not run a story on Kazakhstan in ten years.

'Okay, we have oil, a gift from above, for our people', is a known position that can be taken by a number of countries gifted with oil; 'our people' and the baseline responsibilities thereunto such as for their health, is sometimes distinguished from the politics of a given time. Hence, through that way, and likely among other ways, is how the question came to be, which comes first, the economy (affected by oil), or politics?, which is popular in Kazakhstan.

Events of January 2022 also come at a time when concerns over the Ukraine Russia border have resurged, and consider that there is a border of several thousand miles between modern day Russia and Kazakhstan.

 

US and Some EU Advise and Restrict on Business Activities in Burma/Myanmar, Meanwhile Turbulence Between Junta and Opposition Continue

January 27, 2022
As towns are still being won and lost, reflective of how things were the onset of the turbulence between the new government and the previous, The US and some EU nations are providing guidance of caution against doing business in the region, citing it would leave business entities that do so anyway, especially in certain business sectors, vulnerable to being 'associated by link' to the the current military dictatorship that wields influence over major pillars involved in the business sectors.
 
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A mololtov cocktail and more, incendiary devices, confisticated or intercepted before an attack could materialize, at a church located in DC USA, that was holding some sort of mass in connection to the Supreme Court opening. 

Both of those were since the synogue attack and today the 6th of October 2026.

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