'Volatility Possibilities' May be Key Gauge Respective Future Interactions in the Middle East
Posted by HCN on Thursday, March 19, 2026
Volatility possibilities a factor in determining what to do next, is very old. This time it has an application in markedly attention catching situation, the current conditions of unrest in the Middle East; summarized by Iran has recently been the subject of a high number of missile strikes, along with other activities, such as missiles landing all over the Middle East, something for years was considered an unheard of possibility in the Muslim and Arab Worlds.
In looking ahead, how ever far that is, is based on that in the past 100 years, there has just about always at some point and area within the Middle East, there has been unrest, there is the likelihood that the trajectory over the next at least decade there will either be unrest of some sort, or there will be reasons for someone not to let themselves let things rest, and feel they have a cause to contribute to unrest.
Gas and oil prices may be susceptible to volatility.
Aspects of economics may be volatile, such as here in the US, or in the Middle East, elsewhere, combinations, or all of the above.
Relations with nations may be volatile, allied and at peace in one dimension, but at odds with the same nations in another. For example, when long-time European allies of the US decide they are uncomfortable with a status of military operations, which could occur for example, after a new political party comes to the hilt of power in a nation in Europe.
The location of oil and energy resources, such as beneath the ground or under water, can be independent of geopolitical borders and of course disputes.
In the case of Iran in particular, there quite possibly is or could be, a series of different parties, entities, groups, political parties, religious followings, and more, that may all try to gain power. So if one political party and ideology gets installed, the immediate future might not be a simple of toy soldiers from days bygone. What is meant by that is the vying for power might not be divided into a simple two, either in power, or another group as option to be in power, one with amenable relations to other nations, in this case relevant to the US of course are relations to the US, and another party with relations not as warm.
Instead, based on the typical payout of Middle East politicals for locales in turmoil, there's usually about a half dozen different groups competing all at the same time, no matter what happens, an ongoing situation.
That's volatility. Just to what extent volatility will occur, can be extremely difficult to predict. But in the end, the prospect of volatility will probably exist for a long time.
Opinion afterword
Different methods of suicide related violence is embedded in some areas of the culture in some areas of the Middle East. Intensified activities in Iran are in an era where suicide bombings is still rife in the Middle East in general. There are recurrent reports of incidents in Nigeria, which is to far west extremes in/of the Middle East, debatable where to draw the end/begin line of the region, but is close enough to the northern African/ Middle East zone to make the point.
It can be readily brought to the forefront of minds among millions of Americans what happened in Beirut in October 1983, when the Marine barracks were affected. Of course there is the wish for no such thing to be repeated, nor of course the chance it could, which could mean, situations or settings that could exist where such an incident could conceivably even be planned, might not be in favor.
There have been several incidents in the US, such Austin, Texas attack, on or about March 2nd, and an attack on a synagogue on or about March 12 over a week ago. Whether fully correlated to developments in Middle East, or claimed, or plausible, the events occured and are hence, in the math, of evaluating the entirety of the landscape of emotional comfort.
Right now, March 2026, thousands of families in the Middle East are deeply emotionally affected from what has been going on in this month of March.
Youthful soldiers being in a region where being upset emotionally is the atmosphere, might not be the safest, is an assessment based off common sense.
In looking ahead, how ever far that is, is based on that in the past 100 years, there has just about always at some point and area within the Middle East, there has been unrest, there is the likelihood that the trajectory over the next at least decade there will either be unrest of some sort, or there will be reasons for someone not to let themselves let things rest, and feel they have a cause to contribute to unrest.
Gas and oil prices may be susceptible to volatility.
Aspects of economics may be volatile, such as here in the US, or in the Middle East, elsewhere, combinations, or all of the above.
Relations with nations may be volatile, allied and at peace in one dimension, but at odds with the same nations in another. For example, when long-time European allies of the US decide they are uncomfortable with a status of military operations, which could occur for example, after a new political party comes to the hilt of power in a nation in Europe.
The location of oil and energy resources, such as beneath the ground or under water, can be independent of geopolitical borders and of course disputes.
In the case of Iran in particular, there quite possibly is or could be, a series of different parties, entities, groups, political parties, religious followings, and more, that may all try to gain power. So if one political party and ideology gets installed, the immediate future might not be a simple of toy soldiers from days bygone. What is meant by that is the vying for power might not be divided into a simple two, either in power, or another group as option to be in power, one with amenable relations to other nations, in this case relevant to the US of course are relations to the US, and another party with relations not as warm.
Instead, based on the typical payout of Middle East politicals for locales in turmoil, there's usually about a half dozen different groups competing all at the same time, no matter what happens, an ongoing situation.
That's volatility. Just to what extent volatility will occur, can be extremely difficult to predict. But in the end, the prospect of volatility will probably exist for a long time.
Opinion afterword
Different methods of suicide related violence is embedded in some areas of the culture in some areas of the Middle East. Intensified activities in Iran are in an era where suicide bombings is still rife in the Middle East in general. There are recurrent reports of incidents in Nigeria, which is to far west extremes in/of the Middle East, debatable where to draw the end/begin line of the region, but is close enough to the northern African/ Middle East zone to make the point.
It can be readily brought to the forefront of minds among millions of Americans what happened in Beirut in October 1983, when the Marine barracks were affected. Of course there is the wish for no such thing to be repeated, nor of course the chance it could, which could mean, situations or settings that could exist where such an incident could conceivably even be planned, might not be in favor.
There have been several incidents in the US, such Austin, Texas attack, on or about March 2nd, and an attack on a synagogue on or about March 12 over a week ago. Whether fully correlated to developments in Middle East, or claimed, or plausible, the events occured and are hence, in the math, of evaluating the entirety of the landscape of emotional comfort.
Right now, March 2026, thousands of families in the Middle East are deeply emotionally affected from what has been going on in this month of March.
Youthful soldiers being in a region where being upset emotionally is the atmosphere, might not be the safest, is an assessment based off common sense.
